In July 2024, the Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russia had launched missiles and guided bombs at Kyiv and several other cities in Ukraine, triggering national air-raid alerts. This attack destroyed three substations owned by DTEK, the largest private energy company in Ukraine.

(Source: Ukrainska Pravda)

Actually, damage to the power grid has been a common occurrence in the Russia-Ukraine war. During the war, both Russia and Ukraine have bombed each other’s substations multiple times. Although it is difficult to accurately count the exact number of attacks, it is confirmed that these attacks have caused severe damage to the power infrastructure. For example, after a large-scale air raid on Ukrainian energy facilities by Russia in April of this year, many power plants in Ukraine were severely damaged, and the Ukrainian government had to implement power rationing measures and import electricity from EU countries.

Transformers and substations are often the most vulnerable targets in modern warfare. This is because these stationary electrical equipment does not have protective measures, making them easier to target. Moreover, transformers are extremely important for modern countries; without them, long-distance power transmission is impossible. Additionally, repairing or replacing transformers takes time, especially since there is a short supply of some key materials for transformers, so the lead time is extended. The impact is devastating once the transformers or substations are damaged.

Russia and Ukraine are located in high-latitude areas with harsh winter climates, leading to high demands for heating. Both countries have had to prepare for heating and power supply needs during the previous two winters of the war to prevent damage to energy infrastructure. While there have been frequent drone and missile attacks, it is not easy to destroy the complex power systems. The power grid histories of both countries date back to the Soviet era. For example, Ukraine’s 750 kV grid has operated since 1967, and its quality has ensured stable power transmission until today. Without detailed information and precise weapons, it is difficult to destroy this large power system.

(Source: Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik)

Despite attempts at negotiation and dialogue, there has been little progress in resolving the conflict. Armed Forces of Ukraine launched attacks on multiple fronts, while Russia continued air strikes on Ukraine’s infrastructure. These attacks resulted in widespread power outages and infrastructure damage. At the beginning of the war, about 30% of Ukraine’s infrastructure was destroyed, leaving thousands homeless. Many analysts fear that the war may continue beyond 2025.

In 2023, a report by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) indicated that the electricity sector in Ukraine is dangerous due to continuous attacks. The findings showed that since the war began, 42 out of 94 (45%) vital high-voltage transformers in government-controlled territories have been damaged or destroyed by missile or drone attacks. More than half of these transformers have endured repeated attacks, thwarting attempts at repair. The report also noted that Ukraine’s power generation capacity has fallen to nearly 50% of its pre-2022 level. Since February 2022, out of nearly 37 GW of installed capacity, over 19 GW have been destroyed, damaged, or occupied. More seriously, the loss of thermal power generation capacity exceeds 67%. This widespread destruction has severely impacted winter energy supplies.

(Source: UNDP)

The coming winters might be even more difficult to endure if the war continues. In October 2023, Ukraine ordered 100 new high-voltage transformers to protect its energy infrastructure from potential attacks from Russia during the winter, as reported by The Economist. As the winter of 2024 approaches, Ukraine may once again make thorough preparations in this regard. The UN's Energy Community reported that in April of this year, the Spanish government supported Ukraine with 27 transformers, and Japan and the UNDP also delivered two new autotransformers. Moreover, in July 2024, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine (Ukrainian parliament) adopted two bills to abolish tariffs and value-added tax (VAT) on imported energy equipment, including transformers. The Energy Community of the UN also stated that there are more than 12,000 items on Ukraine’s urgent energy equipment list, and transformers are one of them. Therefore, addressing the shortage of transformers remains a critical concern for Ukraine during the ongoing war.

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