The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), in collaboration with the Office of Electricity (OE), has released a report that examines the quantity and capacity of transformers in the United States, the current service life of transformers, and how demand for them may grow in the coming years. Titled Distribution Transformer Needs: Understanding 2050 Requirements, Drivers, and Management, the report provides national-level estimates that can help manufacturers and utilities assess how many transformers are needed in the U.S. and how to effectively manage this demand.

The research identifies two primary drivers for the growth in transformer demand: new customer needs and the aging of existing transformers. The increase in demand from new customers is straightforward. Regarding transformer age, the report notes that "NREL estimates there are between 60 million and 80 million distribution transformers in operation, with capacities ranging from 25 to 35 TVA (or over 25 to 35 billion kilowatts), of which approximately 55% have been in service for over 33 years—approaching the end of their operational lifespan." More than half of the transformers in the U.S. are too old to operate reliably and are at risk of failure. Therefore, there is a need not only to build new transformers but also to replace aging ones. As the report states, "We anticipate that asset aging and increased load demand will accelerate asset failure rates, particularly after 2030."

The report also finds that current preparedness is insufficient to meet the growing demand for distribution transformers. "Models indicate that annual capacity needs will significantly outpace the growth in the number of transformers required each year." Utilities need to scale up the size of existing transformers and supply additional units. The increasing prevalence of extreme weather events has made pole-mounted transformers more vulnerable to damage, driving a trend toward ground-mounted (pad-mounted) distribution transformers. This shift will further increase the demand for pad-mounted transformers. Additionally, encouraging customers to charge electric vehicles during off-peak hours—such as late at night or early morning—can extend the lifespan of the transformers that power these vehicles.

The partnership between NREL and OE remains ongoing, with NREL continuing to refine its estimates based on new industry data and analyzing different demand scenarios. The published report provides critical data that not only illuminates the challenges at hand but also supports the development of strategies to address these challenges effectively.